Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Grandstand (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Marta Kostyuk		Ekaterina Alexandrova

	1	2
	1.29	3.75	Watch
	1.25	3.90
	1.30	3.50
	1.30	4.04
	1.3	3.64	Watch
	1.25	4.15
	1.30	3.56	Watch
	1.30	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.38)	3.76 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marta Kostyuk
74.5%

Ekaterina Alexandrova
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.5%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marta Kostyuk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marta Kostyuk's performance.

Ekaterina Alexandrova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ekaterina Alexandrova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marta Kostyuk than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marta Kostyuk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ekaterina Alexandrova than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ekaterina Alexandrova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Marta Kostyuk - Ekaterina Alexandrova Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kostyuk will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Kostyuk (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kostyuk (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kostyuk is ranked WTA: 11. Alexandrova is ranked WTA: 19.

Kostyuk is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alexandrova has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Kostyuk is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kostyuk won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marta Kostyuk
WTA US Open
02.09.26	Marta Kostyuk - Sloane Stephens	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Marta Kostyuk - Storm Hunter	2:0 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
21.08.26	Cori Gauff - Marta Kostyuk	2:0 ✺
19.08.26	Marta Kostyuk - Mirra Andreeva	2:1 ✺
18.08.26	Marta Kostyuk - Sloane Stephens	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW
- Ekaterina Alexandrova
WTA US Open
02.09.26	Kimberly Birrell - Ekaterina Alexandrova	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	McCartney Kessler - Ekaterina Alexandrova	0:2 ✺
WTA Monterrey
26.08.26	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Clara Tauson	1:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
18.08.26	Sara Bejlek - Ekaterina Alexandrova	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Anna Blinkova - Ekaterina Alexandrova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Portoroz
12.09.22	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Marta Kostyuk	2:1
WTA Roma
10.05.21	Marta Kostyuk - Ekaterina Alexandrova	0:2

Marta Kostyuk - Ekaterina Alexandrova: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide