Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Szczecin, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday


	Marvin Moeller		Daniel Michalski

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.95	1.75
	1.92	1.79
	1.96	1.75	Watch
	2.03	1.8
	1.92	1.77	Watch
	1.92	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.73)	1.78 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marvin Moeller
47.8%

Daniel Michalski
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marvin Moeller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marvin Moeller's form might have worsened.

Daniel Michalski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Michalski's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marvin Moeller than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marvin Moeller, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Michalski than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Michalski, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Marvin Moeller - Daniel Michalski Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Moeller will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Michalski will win (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Michalski: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Michalski (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moeller is ranked ATP: 278. Michalski is ranked ATP: 302.

Moeller has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Michalski is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Moeller may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marvin Moeller
ATP Challenger
09.09.26	Marvin Moeller - Matias Soto	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Maxim Mrva - Marvin Moeller	Mrva M. Retired ✺
27.08.26	Cezar Cretu - Marvin Moeller	2:0 ✺
26.08.26	Marvin Moeller - Matias Soto	2:0 ✺
25.08.26	Marvin Moeller - Thomas Faurel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 L?LWW
- Daniel Michalski
ATP Challenger
01.09.26	Daniel Michalski - Alejandro Moro Canas	Canceled ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.08.26	Daniel Michalski - Michael Savano	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Daniel Michalski - Mykyta Mashtakov	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	Daniel Michalski - Matyas Cerny	2:0 ✺
27.08.26	Daniel Michalski - Jan Wygona	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 ?WWWW

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