Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Genova 2, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday


	Marvin Moeller		Federico Arnaboldi

	1	2
	1.36	2.90
	1.35	2.95
	1.35	2.92	Watch
	1.33	3.1
	1.35	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.52)	2.96 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marvin Moeller
68.7%

Federico Arnaboldi
31.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marvin Moeller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marvin Moeller's performance.

Federico Arnaboldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Federico Arnaboldi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marvin Moeller than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Marvin Moeller - Federico Arnaboldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Moeller will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Arnaboldi will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Moeller (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Moeller is ranked ATP: 256., and Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 495..

Both players have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Arnaboldi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Moeller for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Moeller has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marvin Moeller
ATP Challenger
22.09.26	Stefano Travaglia - Marvin Moeller	1:2 ✺
17.09.26	Marco Cecchinato - Marvin Moeller	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	Marvin Moeller - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
09.09.26	Marvin Moeller - Matias Soto	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Maxim Mrva - Marvin Moeller	Mrva M. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWL?
- Federico Arnaboldi
ATP Challenger
21.09.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Florian Broska	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Maximilian Marterer - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Federico Arnaboldi	2:1 ✺
07.09.26	Mika Petkovic - Federico Arnaboldi	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Edoardo Cherie Ligniere - Federico Arnaboldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
19.02.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Marvin Moeller	0:2
ATP Challenger
27.01.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Marvin Moeller	2:0

Marvin Moeller - Federico Arnaboldi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide