Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Genova, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 September 2026, Tuesday


	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio		Federico Arnaboldi

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.33	3.10
	1.35	3.05	Watch
	1.37	3.35
	1.33	3.04	Watch
	1.35	3.25
	1.34	2.99	Watch
	1.35	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.35)	3.14 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
70%

Federico Arnaboldi
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Federico Arnaboldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino Samudio - Federico Arnaboldi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Varillas is ranked ATP: 234. Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 521.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Varillas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Varillas is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Varillas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 68.38%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Federico Arnaboldi - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 31.62%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
ATP Challenger
06.09.26	Matej Dodig - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Jay Clarke	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	Seyboth Wild T. Retired ✺
02.09.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Jan Kumstat	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 LW?WW
- Federico Arnaboldi
ATP Challenger
07.09.26	Mika Petkovic - Federico Arnaboldi	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Edoardo Cherie Ligniere - Federico Arnaboldi	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Federico Bondioli	Bondioli F. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
19.08.26	Stefano Reitano - Federico Arnaboldi	Arnaboldi F. Retired
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWL??

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.09.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	0:2
28.03.23	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Federico Arnaboldi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide