Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Como, clay - Final

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday


	Matej Dodig		Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio

	1	2
			Watch
	1.40	2.75
	1.42	2.65
	1.46	2.87
	1.44	2.72	Watch
	1.43	2.8
	1.39	2.77	Watch
	1.42	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.56)	2.74 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matej Dodig
65.9%

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matej Dodig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matej Dodig's performance.

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matej Dodig that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Matej Dodig - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino Samudio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Dodig is ranked ATP: 254. Varillas is ranked ATP: 234.

Dodig is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Varillas has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Dodig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Dodig is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Matej Dodig - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 59.9%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
05.09.26	Johan Nikles - Matej Dodig	0:2 ✺
04.09.26	Max Schoenhaus - Matej Dodig	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Matej Dodig - Henry Bernet	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Matej Dodig - Mili Poljicak	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Matej Dodig - Marvin Moeller	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWL
- Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
ATP Challenger
05.09.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Jay Clarke	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	Seyboth Wild T. Retired ✺
02.09.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Jan Kumstat	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.26	Luka Pavlovic - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 W?WWL

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