Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 June 2025, Tuesday


	Mathys Erhard		Christoph Negritu

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.34	3
			Watch
	1.35	2.94
			Watch
	1.44	2.62	Watch
	1.38	2.9	Watch
	1.57	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.83)	2.74 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathys Erhard
66%

Christoph Negritu
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathys Erhard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mathys Erhard's performance.

Christoph Negritu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Christoph Negritu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mathys Erhard that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christoph Negritu than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Christoph Negritu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Mathys Erhard - Christoph Negritu Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Erhard (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mathys Erhard will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Erhard is ranked ATP: 272. Negritu is ranked ATP: 288.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Negritu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Erhard is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Erhard won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Mathys Erhard - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathys Erhard
ATP Challenger
18.06.25	Mathys Erhard - Luka Mikrut	0:2 ✺
16.06.25	Mathys Erhard - Abedallah Shelbayh	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
04.06.25	Nikolay Vylegzhanin - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
03.06.25	Lucas Bouquet - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.05.25	Chris Rodesch - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLWL
- Christoph Negritu
ATP Challenger
10.06.25	Alexander Shevchenko - Christoph Negritu	2:0 ✺
01.06.25	Christoph Negritu - Jonas Forejtek	0:2 ✺
22.05.25	Nerman Fatic - Christoph Negritu	2:1 ✺
21.05.25	Franco Agamenone - Christoph Negritu	1:2 ✺
20.05.25	Christoph Negritu - Matej Dodig	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
28.10.22	Mathys Erhard - Christoph Negritu	2:1

Mathys Erhard - Christoph Negritu: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide