Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: BEIJING (CHINA) - QUALIFICATION, HARD - FINAL

Date: 26 September 2023, Tuesday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Aleksandar Vukic

	1	2
			Watch
	2	1.75
	2.05	1.77
	2.07	1.79
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.99	1.75	Watch
	2.01	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.74)	1.77 ↓ (2.02)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
46.9%

Aleksandar Vukic
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Arnaldi's form might have worsened.

Aleksandar Vukic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aleksandar Vukic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aleksandar Vukic than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aleksandar Vukic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	0%	46.2%

Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Vukic Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Vukic will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 26.7% – 80.9%.

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Preview

Two players are playing changeable.

Vukic could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Arnaldi won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Beijing
25.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniel Elahi Galan	2:1 ✺
ATP Zhuhai
21.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Aslan Karatsev	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
17.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Leo Borg	2:0 ✺
15.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWWL
- Aleksandar Vukic
ATP Beijing
25.09.23	Brandon Nakashima - Aleksandar Vukic	0:2 ✺
ATP Chengdu
20.09.23	Taro Daniel - Aleksandar Vukic	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
29.08.23	Alexander Zverev - Aleksandar Vukic	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.23	Aleksandar Vukic - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
22.08.23	Aleksandar Vukic - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
16.03.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Vukic	1:2
13.03.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Vukic	Canceled

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