Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.05	11.00	Watch
	1.05	9.50	Watch
	1.04	11.00	Watch
	1.04	9.7	Watch
	1.05	11.00
	1.05	12.40	Watch
	1.04	9.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.05 ↓ (1.07)	10.63 ↑ (8.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 18.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
91%

Matteo Arnaldi
9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88.3%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 3., and Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 37..

Alcaraz Garfia has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Arnaldi have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Arnaldi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Alcaraz Garfia holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Alcaraz Garfia has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:1 (averaging 2.5:0.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Tokyo
01.10.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex Michelsen	2:1 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
27.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur	Canceled ✺
26.09.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
08.09.26	Ben Shelton - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 W?WLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Tokyo
30.09.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Matteo Arnaldi - James Duckworth	1:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Martin Landaluce - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Fabian Marozsan - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
08.03.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2
ATP US Open
04.09.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi	3:0

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