Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: ZHUHAI (CHINA), HARD - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 21 September 2023, Thursday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Aslan Karatsev

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.72	2.1	Watch
	1.73	2.11
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.72	2.12	Watch
	1.74	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.79)	2.09 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
54.5%

Aslan Karatsev
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Aslan Karatsev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aslan Karatsev than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.5%	0%	11.5%

Matteo Arnaldi - Aslan Karatsev Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (23 of 26 users predict this - 88.46%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.18% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Karatsev is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
Davis Cup World Group
17.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Leo Borg	2:0 ✺
15.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
04.09.23	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Matteo Arnaldi	3:0 ✺
02.09.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Cameron Norrie	3:0 ✺
31.08.23	Arthur Fils - Matteo Arnaldi	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWLWW
- Aslan Karatsev
ATP US Open
01.09.23	Ben Shelton - Aslan Karatsev	3:1 ✺
30.08.23	Aslan Karatsev - Roberto Carballes Baena	3:1 ✺
28.08.23	Aslan Karatsev - Jiri Lehecka	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.23	Marc-Andrea Huesler - Aslan Karatsev	2:0 ✺
ATP Toronto
08.08.23	Mackenzie McDonald - Aslan Karatsev	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWLL

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