Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Paris (France), hard (indoor) - 1/32-finals

Date: 29 October 2024, Tuesday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune

	1	2
	4	1.25	Watch
	3.7	1.26
	3.9	1.26	Watch
	3.93	1.29
	3.8	1.29	Watch
	3.5	1.3	Watch
	3.81	1.27	Watch
	3.9	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↑ (2.97)	1.27 ↓ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
25%

Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune
75%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

68%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

65.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Arnaldi's form might have worsened.

Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Matteo Arnaldi - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune Predictions

Users Predictions: Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 37. Rune is ranked ATP: 14.

Arnaldi is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Rune is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arnaldi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Rune is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Basel
21.10.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Matteo Arnaldi	Canceled ✺
21.10.24	David Goffin - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Shanghai
06.10.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniil Medvedev	1:2 ✺
04.10.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Zachary Svajda	2:1 ✺
ATP Tokyo
25.09.24	Tommy Paul - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 ?LLWL
- Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune
ATP Basel
26.10.24	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	0:2 ✺
25.10.24	David Goffin - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:2 ✺
24.10.24	Dominic Stephan Stricker - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:2 ✺
22.10.24	Nicolas Jarry - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:2 ✺
Exhibition Six Kings Slam Men
16.10.24	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL

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