Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: BARCELONA (SPAIN) - QUALIFICATION, CLAY - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Nicolas Moreno De Alboran

	1	2
			Watch
	1.45	2.6
	1.42	2.8
	1.45	2.73
	1.5	2.66
	1.44	2.62	Watch
	1.37	2.91	Watch
	1.41	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.68)	2.72 ↑ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
65.5%

Nicolas Moreno De Alboran
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Nicolas Moreno De Alboran has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Moreno De Alboran might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Moreno De Alboran than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolas Moreno De Alboran could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Moreno De Alboran will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Moreno De Alboran is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arnaldi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arnaldi is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Arnaldi to win the game is with odds 1.4.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Arnaldi won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
09.04.23	Borna Gojo - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
08.04.23	Marco Trungelliti - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
07.04.23	Mikhail Kukushkin - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
06.04.23	Kimmer Coppejans - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
04.04.23	Feliciano Lopez - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWWW
- Nicolas Moreno De Alboran
ATP Challenger
14.04.23	Nicolas Moreno De Alboran - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
12.04.23	Martin Landaluce - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	0:2 ✺
11.04.23	Daniel Rincon - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	1:2 ✺
ATP Marrakech
03.04.23	Elias Ymer - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	2:0 ✺
02.04.23	Alexey Vatutin - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
05.08.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	0:2
24.05.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Moreno De Alboran	2:1

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