Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Quito 3, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday


	Matteo Covato		Felipe De Dios

	1	2
	1.70	2.00
	1.72	1.98
	1.72	1.98	Watch
	1.7	2.08
	1.73	1.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (2.03)	1.99 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Covato
53.8%

Felipe De Dios
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Covato has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Covato's performance.

Felipe De Dios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Felipe De Dios might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Covato than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Covato that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felipe De Dios than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Felipe De Dios could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Matteo Covato - Felipe De Dios Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Covato (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Covato is ranked ATP: 742., and De Dios is ranked ATP: 1148..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Covato
ITF Tournaments
08.10.26	Matteo Covato - Mwendwa Mbithi	2:0 ✺
06.10.26	Matteo Covato - Dakotah Bobo	2:0 ✺
24.09.26	Matteo Covato - Stefan Seifert	0:2 ✺
22.09.26	Matteo Covato - Victor Barrere	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.09.26	Izan Almazan Valiente - Matteo Covato	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWLWL
- Felipe De Dios
ITF Tournaments
08.10.26	Felipe De Dios - Juan Sebastian Gomez	2:1 ✺
06.10.26	Felipe De Dios - Darwin Andres Macias Elizalde	2:1 ✺
23.09.26	Felipe De Dios - Jose Pereira	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Tomas Martinez - Felipe De Dios	2:1 ✺
01.09.26	Nicolas Garcia Longo - Felipe De Dios	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLLW

Matteo Covato - Felipe De Dios: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide