Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zadar, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday


	Max Alcala Gurri		Alex Molcan

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	2.4	1.5	Watch
	3.05	1.33	Watch
	3.31	1.37
	2.94	1.35	Watch
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	3.09	1.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.33)	1.37 ↓ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Max Alcala Gurri
31.6%

Alex Molcan
68.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

60.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

65.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Max Alcala Gurri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Max Alcala Gurri's form might have worsened.

Alex Molcan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex Molcan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Max Alcala Gurri than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex Molcan than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Max Alcala Gurri - Alex Molcan Predictions

Users Predictions: Alex Molcan will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alcala Gurri is ranked ATP: 375. Molcan is ranked ATP: 200.

Alcala Gurri is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Molcan has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Molcan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Molcan is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Max Alcala Gurri
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Max Alcala Gurri - Matyas Cerny	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.03.26	Max Alcala Gurri - Andrey Chepelev	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Sandro Kopp - Max Alcala Gurri	1:2 ✺
27.02.26	Max Alcala Gurri - Stefan Adrian Andreescu	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Max Alcala Gurri - Arthur Bellegy	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWWW
- Alex Molcan
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Christian Langmo - Alex Molcan	0:2 ✺
17.03.26	Maxim Mrva - Alex Molcan	Canceled ✺
02.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Alex Molcan	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
08.02.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Alex Molcan	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Alexandre Muller - Alex Molcan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 W?LLW

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