Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Kigali, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday


	Maximilian Homberg		Corentin Denolly

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	3.08	1.35
	3.80	1.21	Watch
	3.03	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.75)	1.3 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maximilian Homberg
28.2%

Corentin Denolly
71.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

70.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maximilian Homberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Maximilian Homberg's form might have worsened.

Corentin Denolly has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corentin Denolly's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maximilian Homberg than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corentin Denolly than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Maximilian Homberg - Corentin Denolly Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Homberg is ranked ATP: 1100. Denolly is ranked ATP: 312.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Denolly may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Denolly is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Homberg won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maximilian Homberg
ITF Tournaments
09.10.25	Yassine Dlimi - Maximilian Homberg	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Maximilian Homberg - Martin Van Der Meerschen	0:2 ✺
26.09.25	Corentin Denolly - Maximilian Homberg	1:2 ✺
25.09.25	Syl Gaxherri - Maximilian Homberg	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Niels Visker - Maximilian Homberg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLWWL
- Corentin Denolly
ITF Tournaments
09.10.25	Marc Van Der Merwe - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
08.10.25	Etienne Niyigena - Corentin Denolly	0:2 ✺
26.09.25	Corentin Denolly - Maximilian Homberg	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.09.25	Corentin Denolly - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
18.09.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Corentin Denolly	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
26.09.25	Corentin Denolly - Maximilian Homberg	1:2

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