Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Targu Mures 2, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday


	Max Alcala Gurri		Corentin Denolly

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.45	2.5	Watch
	1.42	2.68	Watch
	1.35	2.84	Watch
	1.41	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.53)	2.67 ↑ (2.37)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Max Alcala Gurri
65.4%

Corentin Denolly
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.8%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Max Alcala Gurri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Corentin Denolly has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Max Alcala Gurri than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Max Alcala Gurri that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corentin Denolly than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Corentin Denolly could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Max Alcala Gurri - Corentin Denolly Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alcala Gurri is ranked ATP: 426. Denolly is ranked ATP: 320.

Alcala Gurri has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Denolly has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alcala Gurri may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alcala Gurri could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alcala Gurri won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Max Alcala Gurri - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 60.77%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Max Alcala Gurri
ATP Challenger
16.09.25	Lorenzo Giustino - Max Alcala Gurri	Giustino L. retired ✺
08.09.25	Franco Agamenone - Max Alcala Gurri	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Dominik Kellovsky	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	Gonzalez Fernandez M. retired ✺
26.08.25	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Max Alcala Gurri	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.9 ?LL?L
- Corentin Denolly
ATP Challenger
17.09.25	Corentin Denolly - Gerard Campana Lee	2:1 ✺
11.09.25	Corentin Denolly - Andrea Picchione	0:2 ✺
10.09.25	Corentin Denolly - Stefan Adrian Andreescu	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Corentin Denolly - Sandro Kopp	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.08.25	Matthew Donald - Corentin Denolly	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
22.12.23	Max Alcala Gurri - Corentin Denolly	2:1

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