Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Astana, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 August 2025, Friday


	Mert Alkaya		Egor Gerasimov

	1	2
	1.91	1.75
	2.02	1.76
	1.83	1.83
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.77)	1.78 ↓ (1.96)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mert Alkaya
48.1%

Egor Gerasimov
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mert Alkaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Egor Gerasimov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Egor Gerasimov than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Mert Alkaya - Egor Gerasimov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alkaya is ranked ATP: 708. Gerasimov is ranked ATP: 591.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Alkaya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mert Alkaya
ITF Tournaments
07.08.25	Renta Tokuda - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
26.06.25	Mert Alkaya - Robin Bertrand	0:2 ✺
25.06.25	Aziz Ouakaa - Mert Alkaya	1:2 ✺
20.06.25	Fabrizio Andaloro - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
19.06.25	Mert Alkaya - Petr Bar-Biryukov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWLW
- Egor Gerasimov
ITF Tournaments
07.08.25	Taisei Ichikawa - Egor Gerasimov	0:2 ✺
06.08.25	Zura Tkemaladze - Egor Gerasimov	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.07.25	Egor Gerasimov - Karan Singh	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
28.06.25	Egor Gerasimov - Pawit Sornlaksup	1:2 ✺
26.06.25	Egor Gerasimov - Karlis Ozolins	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLLW

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