Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Mert Alkaya		Niels Visker

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.98	1.74	Watch
	1.58	2.25	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.98	1.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.53)	1.86 ↓ (2.34)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mert Alkaya
49.7%

Niels Visker
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mert Alkaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mert Alkaya's form might have worsened.

Niels Visker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Niels Visker's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mert Alkaya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Niels Visker than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Niels Visker, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Mert Alkaya - Niels Visker Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Alkaya will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Visker will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Visker (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alkaya is ranked ATP: 383. Visker is ranked ATP: 565.

Alkaya is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Visker has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alkaya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mert Alkaya
ATP Doha
14.02.26	Quentin Halys - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
07.02.26	Bor Artnak - Mert Alkaya	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Sebastian Dominko - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.01.26	Edas Butvilas - Mert Alkaya	2:1 ✺
26.01.26	Alberto Bronzetti - Mert Alkaya	Bronzetti A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 L?WL?
- Niels Visker
ITF Tournaments
20.02.26	Anton Matusevich - Niels Visker	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Daniel De Jonge - Niels Visker	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Gus Grumet - Niels Visker	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.02.26	Niels Visker - Petr Brunclik	0:2 ✺
03.02.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Niels Visker	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWLW

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