Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Fujairah - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Mert Alkaya		Takuya Kumasaka

	1	2
			Watch
	1.3	3.1
	1.31	3.15
	1.31	3.4
	1.3	3.2	Watch
	1.33	3.25
	1.33	3.05	Watch
	1.45	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.47)	3.09 ↑ (2.47)

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mert Alkaya
69.9%

Takuya Kumasaka
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.2%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mert Alkaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mert Alkaya's performance.

Takuya Kumasaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Takuya Kumasaka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Takuya Kumasaka than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Mert Alkaya - Takuya Kumasaka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alkaya is ranked ATP: 380. Kumasaka is ranked ATP: 479.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Kumasaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Alkaya will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Mert Alkaya - Ergi Kirkin	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Mert Alkaya - Niels Visker	1:2 ✺
ATP Doha
14.02.26	Quentin Halys - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
07.02.26	Bor Artnak - Mert Alkaya	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Sebastian Dominko - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLL?W
- Takuya Kumasaka
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Shunsuke Nakagawa - Takuya Kumasaka	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Federico Cina	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	S D Prajwal Dev - Takuya Kumasaka	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Rawat Sidharth - Takuya Kumasaka	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.01.26	Aziz Ouakaa - Takuya Kumasaka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWL

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