Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Fujairah - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday


	Mert Alkaya		Ergi Kirkin

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.98	1.76	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.59	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.45)	2.08 ↓ (2.63)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mert Alkaya
54.8%

Ergi Kirkin
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mert Alkaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mert Alkaya's form might have worsened.

Ergi Kirkin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ergi Kirkin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mert Alkaya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ergi Kirkin than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ergi Kirkin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mert Alkaya - Ergi Kirkin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alkaya is ranked ATP: 381. Kirkin is ranked ATP: 581.

Alkaya is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Kirkin has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alkaya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alkaya won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
22.02.26	Mert Alkaya - Niels Visker	1:2 ✺
ATP Doha
14.02.26	Quentin Halys - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
07.02.26	Bor Artnak - Mert Alkaya	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Sebastian Dominko - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.01.26	Edas Butvilas - Mert Alkaya	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LL?WL
- Ergi Kirkin
ITF Tournaments
20.02.26	Ergi Kirkin - Thomas Faurel	0:2 ✺
19.02.26	Ergi Kirkin - Mickael Kaouk	2:0 ✺
18.02.26	Ergi Kirkin - Sergey Betov	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Ergi Kirkin - Mickael Kaouk	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Ergi Kirkin - Alaa Trifi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
09.01.26	Ergi Kirkin - Mert Alkaya	0:2

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