Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Szczecin, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 September 2025, Tuesday


	Michael Vrbensky		Jozef Kovalik

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.65	1.43	Watch
	2.72	1.48
	2.78	1.38	Watch
	2.73	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.27)	1.44 ↓ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Vrbensky
34.8%

Jozef Kovalik
65.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

59.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Vrbensky has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Michael Vrbensky's form might have worsened.

Jozef Kovalik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jozef Kovalik's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Vrbensky than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jozef Kovalik than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Michael Vrbensky - Jozef Kovalik Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kovalik (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Jozef Kovalik will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Vrbensky is ranked ATP: 630. Kovalik is ranked ATP: 552.

Recent form of Vrbensky has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kovalik is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kovalik may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kovalik is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Kovalik will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Michael Vrbensky - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.89%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Vrbensky
ATP Challenger
08.09.25	Jakub Nicod - Michael Vrbensky	Nicod J. retired ✺
07.09.25	David Pichler - Michael Vrbensky	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Kai Wehnelt - Michael Vrbensky	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Jacopo Vasami - Michael Vrbensky	2:1 ✺
05.08.25	Carlos Sanchez Jover - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 ?WLLL
- Jozef Kovalik
ATP Challenger
08.09.25	Marvin Moeller - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
07.09.25	Bartosz Surudo - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
02.09.25	Jan Choinski - Jozef Kovalik	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Dennis Novak - Jozef Kovalik	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Jan Jermar - Jozef Kovalik	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLWW

Michael Vrbensky - Jozef Kovalik: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide