Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Charlottesville (USA) - Qualification, hard (indoor) - Semi-finals

Date: 27 October 2024, Sunday


	Naoki Nakagawa		Ozan Baris

	1	2
			Watch
	2	1.7
	2.01	1.71	Watch
	2.06	1.73
	2.08	1.7	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.01	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.85)	1.72 ↓ (1.86)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naoki Nakagawa
45.9%

Ozan Baris
54.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naoki Nakagawa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Ozan Baris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naoki Nakagawa than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Naoki Nakagawa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ozan Baris than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ozan Baris, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Naoki Nakagawa - Ozan Baris Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nakagawa will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Baris will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakagawa: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nakagawa is ranked ATP: 368. Baris is ranked ATP: 709.

Nakagawa is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Baris is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nakagawa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naoki Nakagawa
ATP Challenger
27.09.24	Bernard Tomic - Naoki Nakagawa	2:0 ✺
24.09.24	Henry Lieberman - Naoki Nakagawa	0:2 ✺
22.09.24	Naoki Nakagawa - James Kent Trotter	2:1 ✺
21.09.24	Naoki Nakagawa - Kyle Edmund	2:1 ✺
20.09.24	Christopher Eubanks - Naoki Nakagawa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 LWWWW
- Ozan Baris
ATP Challenger
25.10.24	Colton Smith - Ozan Baris	2:1 ✺
23.10.24	Ozan Baris - Govind Nanda	2:0 ✺
21.10.24	Alastair Gray - Ozan Baris	1:2 ✺
07.10.24	Ozan Baris - Max Basing	1:2 ✺
06.10.24	Andres Martin - Ozan Baris	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWWLW

Naoki Nakagawa - Ozan Baris: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide