Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer		Kei Nishikori

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.42	2.6	Watch
	1.5	2.72
	1.49	2.44	Watch
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.53	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.54)	2.59 ↑ (2.33)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
63.8%

Kei Nishikori
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Kei Nishikori has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nicolai Budkov Kjaer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kei Nishikori than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kei Nishikori could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	0%	53.8%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Kei Nishikori Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Budkov Kjaer will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Nishikori will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nishikori: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kei Nishikori will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Budkov Kjaer is ranked ATP: 150. Nishikori is ranked ATP: 284.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nishikori may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Budkov Kjaer will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Alex Molcan	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Matej Dodig	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Petr Nesterov	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Henry Bernet	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
09.02.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Jaume Munar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWL
- Kei Nishikori
ATP Challenger
03.03.26	Clement Tabur - Kei Nishikori	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Kei Nishikori - Jelle Sels	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Kei Nishikori - Daniel Jade	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
12.01.26	Kimmer Coppejans - Kei Nishikori	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
05.01.26	Vit Kopriva - Kei Nishikori	Nishikori K. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWW??

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Kei Nishikori: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide