Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Marburg, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 July 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Marburg 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Nicolas Alvarez Varona		Lucas Gerch

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Nicolas Alvarez Varona
66.4%

Lucas Gerch
33.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Lucas Gerch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucas Gerch than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

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Alvarez Varona is ranked ATP: 307. Gerch is ranked ATP: 560.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Alvarez Varona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alvarez Varona could have a small edge in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ITF Tournaments
02.07.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Elmar Ejupovic	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.06.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Jurij Rodionov	1:2 ✺
16.06.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Martin Krumich	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Facundo Juarez	2:1 ✺
10.06.25	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Henri Squire	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLWL
- Lucas Gerch
ITF Tournaments
02.07.25	Lucas Gerch - Aryan Shah	Shah A. retired ✺
ATP Challenger
23.06.25	Lucas Gerch - Pedro Rodrigues	0:2 ✺
22.06.25	Lucas Gerch - Tadeo Meneo	2:0 ✺
20.06.25	Lucas Gerch - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	1:2 ✺
18.06.25	Genaro Alberto Olivieri - Lucas Gerch	Olivieri G. A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 ?LWL?

Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Lucas Gerch