Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Monterrey, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 2, Stan Sport
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	DAZN
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	DAZN
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD, Sky Sports+


	Nikola Bartunkova		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	2.30	1.62	Watch
	2.30	1.60
	2.45	1.55	Watch
	2.46	1.63
	2.36	1.59	Watch
	2.40	1.57
	2.31	1.61	Watch
	2.35	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.88)	1.59 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nikola Bartunkova
40.2%

Elise Mertens
59.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nikola Bartunkova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nikola Bartunkova's form might have worsened.

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elise Mertens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nikola Bartunkova than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nikola Bartunkova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elise Mertens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Nikola Bartunkova - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Bartunkova will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Mertens will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mertens (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Mertens (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Mertens (2.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mertens (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bartunkova is ranked WTA: 38. Mertens is ranked WTA: 24.

Bartunkova is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Mertens has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mertens may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bartunkova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nikola Bartunkova
WTA Monterrey
27.08.26	Darja Vidmanova - Nikola Bartunkova	1:2 ✺
25.08.26	Nikola Bartunkova - En Shuo Liang	2:1 ✺
25.08.26	Nikola Bartunkova - Anastasia Potapova	Canceled ✺
23.08.26	Antonia Ruzic - Nikola Bartunkova	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
15.08.26	Sorana Cirstea - Nikola Bartunkova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WW?WL
- Elise Mertens
WTA Monterrey
27.08.26	Yulia Starodubtseva - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Panna Udvardy - Elise Mertens	1:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
15.08.26	Elise Mertens - Diane Parry	1:2 ✺
WTA Toronto
07.08.26	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
05.08.26	Elise Mertens - Anna Bondar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Berlin
17.06.26	Elise Mertens - Nikola Bartunkova	0:2
WTA Australian Open
23.01.26	Elise Mertens - Nikola Bartunkova	2:0

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