Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Tolentino, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday


	Nuria Brancaccio		Maria Lourdes Carle

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.62	2.20
	1.58	2.23	Watch
	1.61	2.21	Watch
	1.56	2.18
	1.59	2.22	Watch
	1.58	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.83)	2.22 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nuria Brancaccio
58.3%

Maria Lourdes Carle
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nuria Brancaccio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nuria Brancaccio's performance.

Maria Lourdes Carle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Maria Lourdes Carle might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nuria Brancaccio than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nuria Brancaccio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maria Lourdes Carle than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Maria Lourdes Carle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Nuria Brancaccio - Maria Lourdes Carle Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Brancaccio will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Carle will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Brancaccio is ranked WTA: 185., and Carle is ranked WTA: 213..

Brancaccio is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Carle has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Brancaccio could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Brancaccio has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nuria Brancaccio
ATP Challenger
14.09.26	Nuria Brancaccio - Despina Papamichail	0:2 ✺
09.09.26	Nuria Brancaccio - Dalma Galfi	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Nuria Brancaccio - Francesca Curmi	2:0 ✺
WTA US Open
25.08.26	Francesca Jones - Nuria Brancaccio	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.08.26	Nuria Brancaccio - Barbora Palicova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLWLL
- Maria Lourdes Carle
ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Maria Lourdes Carle - Ekaterine Gorgodze	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	Rositsa Dencheva - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:0 ✺
10.09.26	Maria Lourdes Carle - Eva Vedder	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Maria Lourdes Carle - Gina Feistel	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
04.09.26	Federica Urgesi - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.10.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Nuria Brancaccio	2:1
ITF Tournaments
04.07.25	Nuria Brancaccio - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:1

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