Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mallorca - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday


	Oskari Paldanius		Ivan Marrero Curbelo

	1	2
			Watch
	1.70	1.98
	1.68	2.06
	1.73	2.15
	1.68	2.05	Watch
	1.71	2.12
	1.68	2.03	Watch
	1.68	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.78)	2.06 ↑ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oskari Paldanius
54.9%

Ivan Marrero Curbelo
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oskari Paldanius has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Ivan Marrero Curbelo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oskari Paldanius than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oskari Paldanius that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ivan Marrero Curbelo than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ivan Marrero Curbelo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Oskari Paldanius - Ivan Marrero Curbelo Predictions

Users Predictions: Oskari Paldanius will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paldanius is ranked ATP: 834. Marrero Curbelo is ranked ATP: 351.

Paldanius is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Marrero Curbelo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Marrero Curbelo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oskari Paldanius
ATP Challenger
24.08.26	Inaki Montes De La Torre - Oskari Paldanius	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Oskari Paldanius - Peter Makk	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
15.08.26	Amit Vales - Oskari Paldanius	1:2 ✺
14.08.26	Oscar Weightman - Oskari Paldanius	1:2 ✺
13.08.26	Andrea Bacaloni - Oskari Paldanius	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWW
- Ivan Marrero Curbelo
ATP Challenger
26.08.26	Ivan Marrero Curbelo - Andres Andrade	0:2 ✺
25.08.26	Ivan Marrero Curbelo - Blaise Bicknell	2:1 ✺
17.08.26	Ivan Marrero Curbelo - Lucas Andrade Da Silva	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Ivan Marrero Curbelo - Lev Seidman	2:1 ✺
07.08.26	Mathys Erhard - Ivan Marrero Curbelo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLWL

Oskari Paldanius - Ivan Marrero Curbelo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide