Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg (Germany), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 July 2024, Monday

Referee: Janzen T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub 1, SportKlub 2, SportKlub 5, SportKlub 6, SportKlub 7, SportKlub 8, SportKlub 9
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Slovenia	SportKlub 1, SportKlub 2, SportKlub 4


	Pedro Martinez Portero		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	3.2	1.34
	3	1.38	Watch
	3.37	1.36
	2.97	1.42	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	3.08	1.38	Watch
	3	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.57)	1.38 ↓ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pedro Martinez Portero
31.1%

Matteo Arnaldi
68.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

67%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pedro Martinez Portero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pedro Martinez Portero than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Pedro Martinez Portero - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Martinez Portero is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Arnaldi is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arnaldi will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Martinez Portero won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pedro Martinez Portero
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Tommy Paul - Pedro Martinez Portero	3:1 ✺
ATP Mallorca
24.06.24	Pedro Martinez Portero - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Halle
18.06.24	Christopher Eubanks - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:0 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
29.05.24	Andrey Rublev - Pedro Martinez Portero	3:0 ✺
26.05.24	Pedro Martinez Portero - Thiago Augustin Tirante	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
ATP London
19.06.24	Rinky Hijikata - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
18.06.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
02.06.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:3 ✺
31.05.24	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.06.23	Pedro Martinez Portero - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2

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