Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Matteo Arnaldi		Stefanos Tsitsipas

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.4	1.55	Watch
	2.48	1.54
	2.7	1.56
	2.45	1.55	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.56	1.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.76)	1.54 ↑ (1.48)

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
37.9%

Stefanos Tsitsipas
62.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

65.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

69.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Stefanos Tsitsipas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stefanos Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stefanos Tsitsipas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 16 - 50%). Tsitsipas will win (votes: 16 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 32.7% – 67.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tsitsipas (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 104. Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 79.

Arnaldi is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tsitsipas has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tsitsipas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tsitsipas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arnaldi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Stefanos Tsitsipas - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 65.06%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Roland Garros
26.05.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Matteo Arnaldi	1:3 ✺
ATP Roma
10.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rafael Jodar	1:2 ✺
08.05.26	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
06.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Jaume Munar	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WLWWW
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Roland Garros
26.05.26	Alexandre Muller - Stefanos Tsitsipas	Muller A. Retired ✺
ATP Geneva
20.05.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
18.05.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
28.04.26	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 ?LWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
02.06.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:3

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