Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2


	Andrey Rublev		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.35	3.1
	1.38	3.05	Watch
	1.4	3.14
	1.38	2.99	Watch
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.41	2.93	Watch
	1.38	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.32)	3.02 ↓ (3.51)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
68.5%

Matteo Arnaldi
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.7%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rublev: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 8. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 35.

Two players are playing changeable.

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Rublev is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Rublev won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Dubai
25.02.25	Quentin Halys - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
ATP Doha
22.02.25	Jack Draper - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
21.02.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Andrey Rublev	1:2 ✺
20.02.25	Andrey Rublev - Alex De Minaur	2:1 ✺
19.02.25	Andrey Rublev - Nuno Borges	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWWWW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:1 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
15.02.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
14.02.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
13.02.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Learner Tien	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Montreal
11.08.24	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0
ATP Roland Garros
31.05.24	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	0:3
ATP Vienna
26.10.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev	0:2

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