Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon (United Kingdom), grass - 1/64-finals

Date: 1 July 2024, Monday

Location: All England Club (London)


	Matteo Arnaldi		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.15	1.67
	2.25	1.62	Watch
	2.24	1.72
	2.22	1.73
	2.2	1.67
	2.22	1.67	Watch
	2.25	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.57)	1.67 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
42.8%

Francis Tiafoe
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

63%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francis Tiafoe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.7%	0%	42.3%

Matteo Arnaldi - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 15 - 57.7%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 11 - 42.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 38.7% – 76.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Preview

Two players are playing changeable.

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Tiafoe will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP London
19.06.24	Rinky Hijikata - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
18.06.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
02.06.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:3 ✺
31.05.24	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	0:3 ✺
30.05.24	Alexandre Muller - Matteo Arnaldi	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWLWW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP London
17.06.24	Rinky Hijikata - Francis Tiafoe	Hijikata R. retired ✺
ATP Stuttgart
14.06.24	Francis Tiafoe - Jack Draper	1:2 ✺
12.06.24	Francis Tiafoe - Yannick Hanfmann	2:0 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
30.05.24	Denis Shapovalov - Francis Tiafoe	3:1 ✺
27.05.24	Mattia Bellucci - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 ?LWLW

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