Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Madrid 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 September 2025, Tuesday


	Pedro Rodenas		Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

	1	2
	1.48	2.4
	1.42	2.67
	1.43	2.59	Watch
	1.54	2.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.59)	2.5 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pedro Rodenas
63%

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pedro Rodenas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pedro Rodenas than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mario Gonzalez Fernandez than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

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Preview

Rodenas is ranked ATP: 1181. Gonzalez Fernandez is ranked ATP: 706.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Gonzalez Fernandez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rodenas could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rodenas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.51%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pedro Rodenas
ITF Tournaments
06.09.25	Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa - Pedro Rodenas	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Pavlo Tsitsipas - Pedro Rodenas	0:2 ✺
04.09.25	Carles Cordoba - Pedro Rodenas	0:2 ✺
02.09.25	Pedro Rodenas - Michiel De Krom	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	Pedro Rodenas - Javier Barranco Cosano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWWL
- Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
ATP Challenger
31.08.25	Max Alcala Gurri - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	Gonzalez Fernandez M. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.08.25	Mathys Erhard - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Jakub Filip - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	2:1 ✺
21.08.25	Rafael Tosetto - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
20.08.25	Kacper Szymkowiak - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 ?LLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
07.06.23	Pedro Rodenas - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez	1:2

Pedro Rodenas - Mario Gonzalez Fernandez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide