Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Chiasso, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Polona Hercog		Lisa Pigato

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.1
	1.75	2.1
	1.71	2.01	Watch
	1.7	2
	1.68	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.08)	2.05 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polona Hercog
54.7%

Lisa Pigato
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polona Hercog has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Polona Hercog's performance.

Lisa Pigato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lisa Pigato might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polona Hercog than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Polona Hercog that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lisa Pigato than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lisa Pigato could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Polona Hercog - Lisa Pigato Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Hercog is ranked WTA: 249. Pigato is ranked WTA: 149.

Recent performances by Hercog have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Pigato is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Pigato may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Pigato will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Polona Hercog - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.24%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polona Hercog
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Polona Hercog - Arina Bulatova	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Marina Bassols Ribera - Polona Hercog	Hercog P. Retired ✺
17.04.26	Polona Hercog - Sofia Costoulas	2:0 ✺
15.04.26	Polona Hercog - Antonia Stoyanov	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.04.26	Marina Bassols Ribera - Polona Hercog	Hercog P. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 W?WW?
- Lisa Pigato
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Rasheeda Mcadoo - Lisa Pigato	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.04.26	Lisa Pigato - Marina Bassols Ribera	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Polina Kudermetova - Lisa Pigato	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Lisa Pigato - Lina Gjorcheska	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Lisa Pigato - Laura Samsonova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWW

Polona Hercog - Lisa Pigato: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide