Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Quito, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday


	Polona Hercog		Oleksandra Oliynykova

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.2	1.57	Watch
	2.06	1.68
	2.21	1.6	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.25	1.65	Watch
	2.25	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.92)	1.61 ↑ (1.38)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polona Hercog
42.3%

Oleksandra Oliynykova
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

68%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polona Hercog has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Polona Hercog's performance.

Oleksandra Oliynykova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Oleksandra Oliynykova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polona Hercog than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Polona Hercog that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oleksandra Oliynykova than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oleksandra Oliynykova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Polona Hercog - Oleksandra Oliynykova Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Hercog will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Oliynykova will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hercog: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Hercog (votes: 3 - 60%). Oliynykova (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Hercog is ranked WTA: 672. Oliynykova is ranked WTA: 96.

Recent performances by Hercog have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Oliynykova is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Oliynykova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Oliynykova will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Oliynykova will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hercog won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polona Hercog
ATP Challenger
01.12.25	Sara Sorribes Tormo - Polona Hercog	1:2 ✺
24.11.25	Polona Hercog - Jasmin Ortenzi	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Polona Hercog - Oleksandra Oliynykova	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Panna Udvardy - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Jasmin Ortenzi - Polona Hercog	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLLWW
- Oleksandra Oliynykova
ATP Challenger
02.12.25	Martina Colmegna - Oleksandra Oliynykova	1:2 ✺
27.11.25	Oleksandra Oliynykova - Lucciana Perez Alarcon	Oliynykova O. retired ✺
25.11.25	Oleksandra Oliynykova - Sada Nahimana	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Oleksandra Oliynykova - Leolia Jeanjean	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Laura Samsonova - Oleksandra Oliynykova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 W?WWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
21.11.25	Polona Hercog - Oleksandra Oliynykova	0:2
ITF Tournaments
15.02.24	Oleksandra Oliynykova - Polona Hercog	0:2
08.02.24	Oleksandra Oliynykova - Polona Hercog	0:2

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