Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tiburon, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday


	Rafael Jodar		Jack Pinnington Jones

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.66	2.1	Watch
	1.69	2.2
	1.68	2.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.74)	2.13 ↑ (2)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
56%

Jack Pinnington Jones
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Jack Pinnington Jones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jack Pinnington Jones than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Rafael Jodar - Jack Pinnington Jones Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 306. Pinnington Jones is ranked ATP: 178.

Jodar has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Pinnington Jones is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Jodar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Challenger
30.09.25	Rafael Jodar - Andre Ilagan	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Rafael Jodar - Daniel Masur	0:2 ✺
18.09.25	Rafael Jodar - Alex Rybakov	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Nicolas Mejia - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Rafael Jodar - Trevor Svajda	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWWL
- Jack Pinnington Jones
ATP Challenger
29.09.25	Duncan Chan - Jack Pinnington Jones	0:2 ✺
22.09.25	Olle Wallin - Jack Pinnington Jones	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Jack Pinnington Jones - Trevor Svajda	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Christian Langmo - Jack Pinnington Jones	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Jack Pinnington Jones - Aidan Kim	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWWW

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