Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tiburon, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Nicolas Mejia		Rafael Jodar

	1	2
	3.75	1.25	Watch
	3.6	1.24	Watch
	3.6	1.22
	3.88	1.28
	2.84	1.38	Watch
			Watch
	3.82	1.24	Watch
	3.8	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (2.76)	1.26 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Mejia
25.9%

Rafael Jodar
74.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Mejia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nicolas Mejia's form might have worsened.

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rafael Jodar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Nicolas Mejia - Rafael Jodar Predictions

Users Predictions: Rafael Jodar will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rafael Jodar will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mejia is ranked ATP: 199. Jodar is ranked ATP: 306.

In recent matches, Mejia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jodar is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Mejia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Jodar could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Jodar will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mejia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Challenger
01.10.25	Nicolas Mejia - Mats Rosenkranz	2:1 ✺
29.09.25	Nicolas Mejia - Andres Martin	2:1 ✺
25.09.25	Abedallah Shelbayh - Nicolas Mejia	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Tyler Zink - Nicolas Mejia	1:2 ✺
17.09.25	Nicolas Mejia - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWLWL
- Rafael Jodar
ATP Challenger
01.10.25	Rafael Jodar - Jack Pinnington Jones	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Rafael Jodar - Andre Ilagan	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Rafael Jodar - Daniel Masur	0:2 ✺
18.09.25	Rafael Jodar - Alex Rybakov	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Nicolas Mejia - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
17.09.25	Nicolas Mejia - Rafael Jodar	0:2

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