Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Brisbane, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday


	Raphael Collignon		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.21	1.63	Watch
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.3	1.65	Watch
	1.94	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.17)	1.65 ↑ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raphael Collignon
42.6%

Brandon Nakashima
57.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raphael Collignon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	0%	36.8%

Raphael Collignon - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Collignon will win (votes: 12 - 63.2%). Nakashima will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Collignon: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Raphael Collignon will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Collignon is ranked ATP: 84. Nakashima is ranked ATP: 33.

Collignon is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Collignon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nakashima will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Collignon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Brandon Nakashima - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 56.87%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raphael Collignon
ATP Brisbane
08.01.26	Raphael Collignon - Grigor Dimitrov	2:0 ✺
05.01.26	Denis Shapovalov - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Ethan Quinn - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
02.01.26	Alexander Shevchenko - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
21.11.25	Matteo Berrettini - Raphael Collignon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWL
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Brisbane
07.01.26	Quentin Halys - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
05.01.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
ATP Athens
05.11.25	Brandon Nakashima - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
ATP Paris
27.10.25	Alexandre Muller - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
ATP Vienna
22.10.25	Tallon Griekspoor - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hamburg
19.05.25	Raphael Collignon - Brandon Nakashima	Collignon R. retired
ATP Challenger
25.01.24	Brandon Nakashima - Raphael Collignon	2:0

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