Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: MADRID (SPAIN) - QUALIFICATION, CLAY - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 24 April 2023, Monday


	Raul Brancaccio		Aslan Karatsev

	1	2
			Watch
	2.85	1.4
	2.88	1.41
	2.8	1.42
	2.94	1.42
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.96	1.36	Watch
	2.8	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.24)	1.4 ↓ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raul Brancaccio
32.9%

Aslan Karatsev
67.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

58.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raul Brancaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Raul Brancaccio's form might have worsened.

Aslan Karatsev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aslan Karatsev's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raul Brancaccio than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Raul Brancaccio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aslan Karatsev than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aslan Karatsev, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Raul Brancaccio - Aslan Karatsev Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Brancaccio will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Karatsev will win (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brancaccio: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Brancaccio is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Karatsev is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Brancaccio could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Karatsev is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raul Brancaccio
ATP Barcelona
15.04.23	Raul Brancaccio - Pol Martin Tiffon	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.04.23	Miljan Zekic - Raul Brancaccio	2:1 ✺
10.04.23	Titouan Droguet - Raul Brancaccio	1:2 ✺
04.04.23	Alejandro Moro Canas - Raul Brancaccio	2:0 ✺
30.03.23	Raul Brancaccio - Gastao Elias	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLWLL
- Aslan Karatsev
ATP Munich
20.04.23	Aslan Karatsev - Botic Van De Zandschulp	0:2 ✺
20.04.23	Aslan Karatsev - Daniel Altmaier	2:1 ✺
16.04.23	Aslan Karatsev - Louis Wessels	2:0 ✺
15.04.23	Aslan Karatsev - Robin Haase	2:1 ✺
ATP Marrakech
03.04.23	Aslan Karatsev - Francesco Passaro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWWL

Raul Brancaccio - Aslan Karatsev: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide