Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lexington, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 31 July 2025, Thursday


	Rei Sakamoto		Eliot Spizzirri

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.15	1.62	Watch
	2.13	1.64	Watch
	2.13	1.73
	1.55	2.36	Watch
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.07	1.69	Watch
	2.05	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.09)	1.75 ↑ (1.72)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
45.9%

Eliot Spizzirri
54.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Eliot Spizzirri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eliot Spizzirri than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Rei Sakamoto - Eliot Spizzirri Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Spizzirri (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Eliot Spizzirri will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 205. Spizzirri is ranked ATP: 124.

Recent performances by Sakamoto have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Spizzirri is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sakamoto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Spizzirri will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sakamoto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Rei Sakamoto - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.14%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Challenger
29.07.25	Antoine Ghibaudo - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
22.07.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Rei Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
10.07.25	Alexander Blockx - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
09.07.25	Naoki Nakagawa - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
06.07.25	Rei Sakamoto - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLWW
- Eliot Spizzirri
ATP Challenger
29.07.25	Stefan Dostanic - Eliot Spizzirri	0:2 ✺
26.07.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Andres Martin	0:2 ✺
25.07.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Yi Zhou	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Michael Zheng	2:1 ✺
22.07.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Rei Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
22.07.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Rei Sakamoto	2:1

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