Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Cairns (Australia), hard - Final

Date: 5 October 2024, Saturday


	Rio Noguchi		Blake Ellis

	1	2
			Watch
	1.3	3.1
	1.3	3.1
	1.32	3.16
	1.31	3.15	Watch
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.33	3.09	Watch
	1.3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.57)	3.1 ↑ (2.26)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Noguchi
70.2%

Blake Ellis
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Noguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rio Noguchi's performance.

Blake Ellis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Blake Ellis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rio Noguchi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blake Ellis than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Blake Ellis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rio Noguchi - Blake Ellis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Noguchi is ranked ATP: 288. Ellis is ranked ATP: 368.

At the moment players are feeling good and ready to play.

Ellis could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Noguchi will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Noguchi won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Noguchi
ITF Tournaments
04.10.24	Rio Noguchi - Edward Winter	2:0 ✺
03.10.24	Rio Noguchi - Alexander Klintcharov	2:0 ✺
02.10.24	Rio Noguchi - Colin Sinclair	2:0 ✺
01.10.24	Rio Noguchi - James Watt	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.09.24	Rio Noguchi - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWWL
- Blake Ellis
ITF Tournaments
04.10.24	Hiroki Moriya - Blake Ellis	1:2 ✺
03.10.24	Scott Jones - Blake Ellis	0:2 ✺
02.10.24	Zachary Adam-Gedge - Blake Ellis	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.09.24	Blake Ellis - Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong	0:2 ✺
23.09.24	Blake Ellis - Credit Chaiyarin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
05.11.23	Blake Ellis - Rio Noguchi	2:1

Rio Noguchi - Blake Ellis: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide