Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: RIO DE JANEIRO (BRAZIL), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 21 February 2023, Tuesday


	Roberto Carballes Baena		Francisco Cerundolo

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.6	1.48
	2.7	1.46
	2.8	1.49
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	3.05	1.38	Watch
	2.7	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.2)	1.45 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roberto Carballes Baena
34.4%

Francisco Cerundolo
65.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Roberto Carballes Baena's form might have worsened.

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francisco Cerundolo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Roberto Carballes Baena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francisco Cerundolo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.8%	0%	85.2%

Roberto Carballes Baena - Francisco Cerundolo Predictions

Users Predictions: Francisco Cerundolo will win (23 of 27 users predict this - 85.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.79% – 98.59%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carballes Baena is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cerundolo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cerundolo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Cerundolo will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Cerundolo to win the game is with odds 1.49.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Carballes Baena won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Buenos Aires
15.02.23	Roberto Carballes Baena - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1:2 ✺
14.02.23	Albert Ramos-Vinolas - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
ATP Cordoba
06.02.23	Roberto Carballes Baena - Bernabe Zapata Miralles	1:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
17.01.23	Roberto Carballes Baena - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
ATP Pune
04.01.23	Marin Cilic - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLL
- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Buenos Aires
17.02.23	Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Francisco Cerundolo	2:1 ✺
16.02.23	Jaume Munar - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
14.02.23	Yannick Hanfmann - Francisco Cerundolo	1:2 ✺
ATP Cordoba
10.02.23	Federico Coria - Francisco Cerundolo	Cerundolo F. retired ✺
09.02.23	Federico Delbonis - Francisco Cerundolo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Belgrade
19.04.21	Roberto Carballes Baena - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2
ATP Challenger
06.12.20	Roberto Carballes Baena - Francisco Cerundolo	1:2
21.11.20	Francisco Cerundolo - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0

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