Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cancun 2, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Roman Safiullin		Hubert Hurkacz

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.35	1.53
	2.35	1.5	Watch
	2.57	1.56
	2.37	1.52	Watch
	2.35	1.51
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.35	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.59)	1.53 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roman Safiullin
39.1%

Hubert Hurkacz
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roman Safiullin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Hubert Hurkacz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roman Safiullin than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roman Safiullin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hubert Hurkacz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Roman Safiullin - Hubert Hurkacz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Safiullin is ranked ATP: 103. Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 69.

Safiullin is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Hurkacz has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Safiullin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Hurkacz will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Hubert Hurkacz - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.43%, but this team recently wins 80% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roman Safiullin
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
18.08.26	Roman Safiullin - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
05.07.26	Roman Safiullin - Novak Djokovic	1:3 ✺
03.07.26	Roman Safiullin - Joao Fonseca	3:0 ✺
01.07.26	Roman Safiullin - Botic Van De Zandschulp	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLWW
- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Henrique Rocha - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Tommy Paul - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
14.08.26	Corentin Moutet - Hubert Hurkacz	Canceled ✺
ATP Montreal
07.08.26	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLW?L

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