Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shenzhen 4 - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday


	Sergey Fomin		Evan Zhu

	1	2
			Watch
	1.35	2.95	Watch
	1.4	2.92
	1.41	2.78	Watch
	1.37	2.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.61)	2.9 ↑ (2.21)

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sergey Fomin
67.7%

Evan Zhu
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sergey Fomin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sergey Fomin's performance.

Evan Zhu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Evan Zhu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sergey Fomin than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sergey Fomin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Evan Zhu than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Evan Zhu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sergey Fomin - Evan Zhu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fomin is ranked ATP: 492. Zhu is ranked ATP: 578.

Recent performances by Fomin have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Zhu's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Zhu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fomin is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Evan Zhu - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.15%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sergey Fomin
ATP Challenger
11.10.25	Sergey Fomin - Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul	2:0 ✺
06.10.25	Sergey Fomin - Denis Yevseyev	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Rio Noguchi - Sergey Fomin	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group II
14.09.25	Tsz Fu Wong - Sergey Fomin	Canceled ✺
12.09.25	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Sergey Fomin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLW?L
- Evan Zhu
ATP Challenger
11.10.25	Zhenxiong Dong - Evan Zhu	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Evan Zhu - Petr Bar-Biryukov	0:2 ✺
21.09.25	Alex Bolt - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.09.25	Denis Yevseyev - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.09.25	Alexandr Binda - Evan Zhu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLLLL

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