Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shymkent 2, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday


	Sergey Fomin		Jelle Sels

	1	2
	1.4	2.7
	1.38	2.85
	1.41	3.08
	1.44	2.6	Watch
	1.39	2.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.65)	2.8 ↑ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sergey Fomin
66.6%

Jelle Sels
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sergey Fomin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sergey Fomin's performance.

Jelle Sels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jelle Sels might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sergey Fomin than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sergey Fomin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelle Sels than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jelle Sels could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sergey Fomin - Jelle Sels Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fomin is ranked ATP: 359. Sels is ranked ATP: 447.

Fomin has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sels's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sels may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Fomin will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Sergey Fomin - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.94%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Jelle Sels - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.06%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sergey Fomin
ATP Challenger
25.04.26	Timofey Skatov - Sergey Fomin	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Andrej Nedic - Sergey Fomin	1:2 ✺
23.04.26	Sergey Fomin - Max Wiskandt	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Sandro Kopp - Sergey Fomin	1:2 ✺
21.04.26	Sergey Fomin - Vladyslav Orlov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 WWWWW
- Jelle Sels
ATP Challenger
23.04.26	Jelle Sels - Antoine Ghibaudo	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Ivan Gakhov - Jelle Sels	Gakhov I. Retired ✺
20.04.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Jelle Sels	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
08.04.26	Max Schoenhaus - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Giovanni Fonio - Jelle Sels	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 L?WLW

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