Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: LOS CABOS (MEXICO), HARD - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 19 February 2024, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Max Purcell		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.4	1.55	Watch
	2.35	1.58	Watch
	2.45	1.61
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.38	1.59	Watch
	2.35	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.16)	1.58 ↓ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Max Purcell
39.8%

Matteo Arnaldi
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

56.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Max Purcell has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Max Purcell than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Max Purcell, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Max Purcell - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Purcell will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Two players are playing changeable.

Arnaldi could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Purcell won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Max Purcell
ATP Delray Beach
13.02.24	Max Purcell - Zachary Svajda	0:2 ✺
ATP Dallas
07.02.24	Marcos Giron - Max Purcell	2:0 ✺
05.02.24	Mitchell Krueger - Max Purcell	1:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
17.01.24	Max Purcell - Casper Ruud	2:3 ✺
15.01.24	Max Purcell - Mate Valkusz	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Delray Beach
14.02.24	Rinky Hijikata - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
12.02.24	Yoshihito Nishioka - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
16.01.24	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi	3:0 ✺
13.01.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Adam Walton	3:0 ✺
ATP Adelaide
09.01.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Nicolas Jarry	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
11.01.23	Max Purcell - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0

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