Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mexico City, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 April 2026, Friday


	Stefano Napolitano		Tristan Schoolkate

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.69	2.05	Watch
	1.72	2.23
	1.67	2.07	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.69	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.93)	2.08 ↑ (1.76)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefano Napolitano
55.1%

Tristan Schoolkate
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

48.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefano Napolitano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stefano Napolitano's performance.

Tristan Schoolkate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tristan Schoolkate might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tristan Schoolkate than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Stefano Napolitano - Tristan Schoolkate Predictions

Users Predictions: Stefano Napolitano will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stefano Napolitano will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Napolitano is ranked ATP: 302. Schoolkate is ranked ATP: 116.

Napolitano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Schoolkate is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Schoolkate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Napolitano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Tristan Schoolkate - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 52.3%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Challenger
08.04.26	Matias Soto - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Andres Martin - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Facundo Mena	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Maximilian Neuchrist	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW
- Tristan Schoolkate
ATP Challenger
08.04.26	Marc Polmans - Tristan Schoolkate	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Blaise Bicknell - Tristan Schoolkate	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Nicolas Mejia - Tristan Schoolkate	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Facundo Mena - Tristan Schoolkate	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Corentin Denolly - Tristan Schoolkate	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
17.03.25	Stefano Napolitano - Tristan Schoolkate	1:2

Stefano Napolitano - Tristan Schoolkate: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide