Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali 2, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday


	Stefano Napolitano		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.39	1.51
	2.49	1.6
	2.41	1.5	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.32	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.3)	1.54 (1.54)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefano Napolitano
39.1%

Arthur Gea
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

67.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefano Napolitano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stefano Napolitano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Gea could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gea (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Arthur Gea will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Napolitano is ranked ATP: 422. Gea is ranked ATP: 161.

Napolitano is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Gea has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Napolitano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gea is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Napolitano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Maximilian Neuchrist	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
08.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWLWW
- Arthur Gea
ATP Challenger
12.03.26	Sean Cuenin - Arthur Gea	Cuenin S. retired ✺
10.03.26	Cesar Bouchelaghem - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	Calvin Hemery - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Filip Cristian Jianu - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 ?WLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
06.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	2:1

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