Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Mexico City, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday


	Matias Soto		Stefano Napolitano

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.55	1.56
	2.46	1.48	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.34	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.09)	1.53 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matias Soto
38.6%

Stefano Napolitano
61.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

55.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matias Soto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matias Soto's form might have worsened.

Stefano Napolitano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stefano Napolitano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matias Soto than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stefano Napolitano than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Matias Soto - Stefano Napolitano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Soto is ranked ATP: 304. Napolitano is ranked ATP: 302.

Soto has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Napolitano has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Soto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Napolitano might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matias Soto
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Jay Clarke - Matias Soto	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Matias Soto - Nicolas Mejia	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Alan Magadan - Matias Soto	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	Matias Soto - Vladyslav Orlov	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Matias Soto - Bor Artnak	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWW?
- Stefano Napolitano
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Andres Martin - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Facundo Mena	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
12.03.26	Stefano Napolitano - Maximilian Neuchrist	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLWW

Matias Soto - Stefano Napolitano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide