Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: VALENCIA (SPAIN), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 21 November 2023, Tuesday


	Sumit Nagal		Alejandro Moro Canas

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.1
	1.68	2.1	Watch
	1.72	2.16
	1.71	2.18
	1.62	2.2
	1.64	2.16	Watch
	1.54	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.4)	2.16 ↓ (2.72)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sumit Nagal
56.7%

Alejandro Moro Canas
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.7%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sumit Nagal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sumit Nagal's form might have worsened.

Alejandro Moro Canas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alejandro Moro Canas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumit Nagal than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sumit Nagal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Moro Canas than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alejandro Moro Canas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Sumit Nagal - Alejandro Moro Canas Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nagal will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Moro Canas will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moro Canas: 23.1% – 88.1%.

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Preview

Nagal is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Moro Canas is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nagal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sumit Nagal
ATP Challenger
12.11.23	Corentin Moutet - Sumit Nagal	2:1 ✺
11.11.23	Stefano Travaglia - Sumit Nagal	0:2 ✺
10.11.23	Sumit Nagal - Emil Ruusuvuori	Nagal S. retired ✺
08.11.23	Jakub Mensik - Sumit Nagal	0:2 ✺
07.11.23	Dennis Novak - Sumit Nagal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LW?WW
- Alejandro Moro Canas
ATP Challenger
20.11.23	Alejandro Moro Canas - Carlos Lopez Montagud	1:2 ✺
19.11.23	Alejandro Moro Canas - Carlos Sanchez Jover	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
11.11.23	Alejandro Moro Canas - Javier Barranco Cosano	1:2 ✺
10.11.23	Alejandro Moro Canas - Alejo Sanchez Quilez	2:0 ✺
09.11.23	Alejandro Moro Canas - Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLWW

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