Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Quebec City, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday


	Taro Daniel		Jacob Fearnley

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.45	1.48
	2.70	1.44	Watch
	2.72	1.51
	2.66	1.42	Watch
	2.70	1.45
	2.50	1.47	Watch
	2.55	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.82)	1.46 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Taro Daniel
35.8%

Jacob Fearnley
64.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

66.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

68.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Taro Daniel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Jacob Fearnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Taro Daniel than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Taro Daniel - Jacob Fearnley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Daniel is ranked ATP: 186. Fearnley is ranked ATP: 107.

Daniel is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fearnley has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fearnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fearnley is the team to beat.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Taro Daniel - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.11%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Taro Daniel
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Jan Choinski - Taro Daniel	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Duncan Chan - Taro Daniel	0:2 ✺
18.08.26	Dusan Lajovic - Taro Daniel	1:2 ✺
17.08.26	Maxime St-Hilaire - Taro Daniel	0:2 ✺
ATP Estoril
21.07.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Taro Daniel	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWW?
- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Jacob Fearnley - Alexis Galarneau	2:0 ✺
19.08.26	Jacob Fearnley - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.26	Nicolas Mejia - Jacob Fearnley	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Jacob Fearnley - Jakub Mensik	1:2 ✺
04.08.26	Jacob Fearnley - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW

Taro Daniel - Jacob Fearnley: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide