Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 4 August 2026, Tuesday


	Jacob Fearnley		Adrian Mannarino

	1	2
	1.53	2.50	Watch
	1.55	2.40
	1.54	2.48	Watch
	1.60	2.52
	1.55	2.45	Watch
	1.58	2.30	Watch
	1.54	2.51	Watch
	1.55	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.57)	2.45 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacob Fearnley
61.2%

Adrian Mannarino
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Adrian Mannarino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Jacob Fearnley - Adrian Mannarino Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Fearnley (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jacob Fearnley will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fearnley (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fearnley is ranked ATP: 110. Mannarino is ranked ATP: 47.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Fearnley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fearnley is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fearnley won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Jacob Fearnley - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 60.25%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Montreal
01.08.26	Jacob Fearnley - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.07.26	Jeffrey John Wolf - Jacob Fearnley	Canceled ✺
26.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Jacob Fearnley	2:0 ✺
25.07.26	Jacob Fearnley - Michael Zheng	2:0 ✺
24.07.26	Jacob Fearnley - Jeffrey John Wolf	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 W?LWW
- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Washington
29.07.26	Alex Michelsen - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Adrian Mannarino - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.07.26	Adrian Mannarino - Alexis Galarneau	1:2 ✺
08.07.26	Adrian Mannarino - Remy Bertola	2:0 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.26	Alex De Minaur - Adrian Mannarino	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
13.09.24	Adrian Mannarino - Jacob Fearnley	0:2

Jacob Fearnley - Adrian Mannarino: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide